Writer's Block

First, the title seems to make the assumption that I might be a writer. Yes and no, emphasis on "might be".

I have not written a book, ever, but have one or two in my head that I would like to get on paper.

Perhaps I'll rephrase that...

Although I have not yet written a book, I have one or two in my head that I intend to get on paper.

That feels better. "liking" and "intending" are as different as "dreams" ad "goals"...  a whole other topic.

The trouble is getting past the beginning as the beginning seems to be very tough to nail down. I figure that once it gets rolling it should just take off on it's own.

I also expect that that assumption is far from the truth partly because it overlooks the editing and re-writing stages but mostly because "taking off on it's own" is a very broad over simplification. I did pick up a few dozen books and re-read the beginnings in order to see if I could find inspiration in style and form there. That didn't make any difference as there were as many styles as there were books in my hand.

Stephen King wrote a book, "On writing", that I have read through, only once. Interesting read. It has led me to start reading more of his work. Although I am not a big SK fan, I have read "The Stand" and a couple of others. I have watched more screen adaptations of his books over the years than I have read books, but I also know that reading a book far surpasses watching the movie in almost every way. Perhaps unconsciously judging his various stories based on what I have "seen" has been a mistake as this may have been the largest reason for not reading more of his books. I've since read a number of short stories and started the "Gunslinger" series with an eye toward some of his processes that he talks about in "On Writing". Even if the story may not be exactly my thing, reading with process and technique in mind make the effort worth it.

Novelizations or books written for the sake of turning it into a movie, of course, are exceptions to the book is better than the movie rule... I have inadvertently bought one or two of these in the past and wondered "why bother writing these?".

Well, from a money making standpoint novelizations squeeze out a few more dollars in profits, OK. From a writing experience standpoint I figured the "why bother?" might be a good idea for me. My thinking came from SK's book, in a round about way, as he talks about his first writing when he was a kid. He had copied another's short story and initially claimed that he had written it himself... kids. I can assume that, if nothing else, it gave him the experience of putting words on paper in such a way as to make it feel as though he were creating a story that was at least half decent.

It's the "feel" that may make a difference. I can imagine the end product but have no concept of all of the in between steps and the actual writing that it takes to get there. Sort of like imagining topping Mount Everest without all the trudging up to base camp and most of the real climbing involved in order to reach the last few hours of the climax. Looking out over the world shrouded in fluffy white clouds is a great day dream without the real work of the climb.

I decided that I can take a movie and write a novelization in order to experience the act of writing. The putting down of dialogue and scene summary in an effort to get the "feel" of writing without having to think hard about creating the story sounds like a cheat, but may be a good experience starter. While I have hundreds of movies in my collection, choosing the right one might be problematic, only due to the wide selection. I expect that this exercise in writing may also be an over simplification but I am determined to persevere in this particular endeavour.

Off to the movie library.

Jeff.

Late January Sunrise

I think that my favourite photo subject is the sunrise, partly due to the ease of watching it from my backyard and partly due to the fact that it is the first light of day and every day is different. Either way, here is a series of sunrise shots from this morning including one often overlooked Western sky at sunrise (3rd shot).

Yesterday we had a mini ice storm and I was hoping to catch some sunlight through the ice laden trees but the the sun only made a brief appearance before it was occluded by the clouds.

Jeff.

Every sunrise is unique

This is another cold morning sunrise. Sometimes capturing the precise peak of colour is tough but I seem to just know as I only took three shots of this one.

I always like the dark blue of the sky as much as the oranges and reds.

Jeff.

Dunes

Sometimes a shot just needs to be taken. This one I noticed a day earlier and,at the time regretted not seeing it an hour earlier as the sun had moved so that most of the scene was in shade and it lost it's impact. The next day the lighting was about as perfect as it was going to be, so out for a few minutes of shooting.

The joy of instant gratification due to digital photography.

Today, Jan 21st, I realized why this shot called out to me. Normally snow does not provide any contrast on it's own. Everything is a shade of white or very light grey and the only contrast is provided by other subjects or shadows cast by them. In this case the snow formations themselves are providing the physical shapes to cast shadows and provide some form of reference for the shapes involved.

This is the overall view of the backyard where the "dune" shots were taken. It's all in the perspective and, in this case, removing all other references.

 

Jeff.

Demon Dog!

Our pup had her winter haircut yesterday, it's a little shorter than we've normally gone. Typically I leave a little more on her head and a tail fluff so she doesn't look so weird. She has a small head for her body, something about the mixed breeding.

Here's a reasonably recent before (she was more hairy than this, but not much)

Then there is DEMON DOG!

Sure, not the most flattering angle, and the flash on the iPhone does nothing for the infamous "red eye"... which is "white eye" for most dogs.

With the short hair, I now see that she has gotten a little tubby too, time to lower the rations a bit for the winter lazy period I guess.

Funny, I am sure that she acts the same as she did before, but her short hair look makes it seem as if she acts differently. Must be just an impression thing.

Jeff.

Another case for DRIPping

I went back and set up a screen to choose a small handful of stocks with a tight enough set of criteria that only 28 made the list. The main items were that they had a 5% dividend yield or higher and a few other price, volume minimums. I did look for stocks that had their 50SMA higher than their 200SMA and the price had to be above the 200SMA. These were really just to get a small list rather than looking specifically for any performance, I could have just as easily reversed the technical items and and come up with a list that worked just as well.

A good number of the candidates were of the AAPL, BIP and D variety, trending up since early 2009 but some were not. I chose the very first one that bucked the trend and that had over three years of history... Exelon Corp (EXC).

Here is the chart:

Using the same $1,000 per quarter investment and just going with buying based on the last trading day of the month before the record date, the vertical green lines.

If there were no dividend this would be not so great, total ROI is in the red by 3.25%, which is better than it was in 2010 but the timing of when I might need my money might correspond with a down time, and that would suck. This is the main issue that I initially had with DRIPs.

With dividends included and re-investment applied as per the DRIP, the results are as follows:


Adjusted Cost Base (ACB) = $42.44
Total invested  = $12,000 (302 shares)
Current price = $41.11
Total value = $12,431
Total gains (on paper) = $431or 3.6%
Final dividend payout = $145.04

Dividend Re-Investment Plans are for long term investing with no real eye toward selling. As much as this goes against my desire to continue with an active trading plan, I definitely see the advantage in this lethargic style of investing. The only investments that I have right now are of this type, which says a lot for DRIPs in the first place. It was the first investment strategy that I investigated and, while it may not be the last, it certainly will stand the test of longevity in my books as i don;t plan on closing out my DRIPs. In hindsight I do see that I could have benefited by shutting down my trading at it's peak and shifted my cash into these instead. Of course, the peak is not always attained in any trade or plan, hindsight as it is.

Being that I am in Canada, I suppose that I should do this same study with Canadian stocks, or at least those that have a Canadian stock offering. The tax implications are easier to handle as is the acquisition of the starter stocks for the DRIP... which I haven't even mentioned here. There just aren't as many offerings in Canada as in the US.

Jeff.

BIP, Other Stocks Trending, the DRIP still shines

I know, I seem to be on a stock chart bender right now, this is nothing compared to what I used to do. I am making a little point in that the AAPL was no "one hit wonder" and there are many more stocks that did the exact same thing. In that case choosing trades was fairly easy as any decent company was hitting a trend around the same time, which makes for a great trading environment as long as the total account is positioned with the possibility of a change in the trend being covered.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, (BIP)

I annotated the chart and it pretty much says it all:

Buying and selling according to the chart without regard to any dividends using $1,000 trade sizes yields a 21.2% profit, about $843.

Back to dividend re-investment I noted the next chart two ways, one for straight timed buying to be just ahead of the record dates and opportunity buying. Opportunity buying consists of considering buying anytime in the 30 days prior to the record dates if the price is under the 50 or 200 SMA lines.

Timed buying:                                                          Opportunity Buying:


Adjusted Cost Base (ACB) = $17.60
Total invested  = $10,000 (590 shares)                    614 shares
Current price = $28.17
Total value = $16,640                                              $17,305
Capital gains (on paper) = $6,640or 66.4%              $7,305 or 73%
Final dividend payout = $71.22                                 $73.79

Basically, either method works well so I might split the difference between them. The thing about opportunity buying is that sending in a cheque to buy through the DRIP leaves the timing up to the processing department at the transfer agent... which means timing is not great. There is some return lost as a result of true timing using a broker as there are commissions and even share purchases with a synthetic DRIP (no partial shares counted).

Jeff.

January blahs.... not likely.

I was home for lunch today, as I typically manage to do, and noted just how warm it was. The sun was shining, the snow was melting in that late winter way, as if spring were just around the corner. Seeing as we are about 4 or 5 degrees Celsius higher than our normals for this year, and some of the highs are higher then that, it is hard to be down over the January mid winter blahs.

December 21st, the winter solstice, when there is the least amount of daylight and the most darkness, is my usual "hump" day when it comes to winter. I know from that day forward the days only get longer and I trick my mind into thinking that spring is just around the corner, which isn't hard to do this year.

Seeing as I live in Canada, winter is just part of the lifestyle but that doesn't mean that I have to embrace it wholly. I am looking forward to when the trails are clear of snow again so I can run without the snow and ice.

Jeff.